Analyst, Civil and Family Court Forecasting, Analysis DirectorateMinistry of Justice

23796

Descriptions & requirements

Job description

Do you have the passion, values, and ability to help us solve the biggest problems of the justice system?

HEO Civil and Family Court Forecasting

1.     Overview

We have one role in the Fee and Fine Forecasting Team within the Analysis Directorate.

Roles are open to:

1.     Existing badged analysts from the GORS/GSS/GES professions either on level transfer or on promotion.

2.     Other candidates that are not members of GSS, GORS professions but possess and can demonstrate similar experience at the appropriate level. Badging opportunities will be available once in post for those who wish to apply.

Please note: this opportunity is only open to individuals currently employed within the Civil Service.

Specialist allowance

Due to the role(s) being analytical, those successful in recruitment will be eligible for a specialist allowance following an analytical interview based on the following values:

HEO London: £1000

HEO National: £1500

Minimum requirements to apply:

Candidates must be able to show the relevant experience and skills and must meet the criteria for entry:

HEO grade – must meet at least one of the following:

1.     You possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or as a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD).

2.     Alternatively, you have significant experience evidencing use of data and/or analytical skills (outside of a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship).

We welcome applications from candidates based across the UK. Candidates will have the option of being based in the Leeds or London HQ offices (with flexible working arrangements available) or your nearest Justice Collaboration Centre or Justice Satellite Office: see this map for more details.

Alternative locations may be available and will be discussed and agreed on the completion of background checks.

Interviews are likely to take place in December 2026 and will be held via MS Teams. We will keep a merit list for a year for those who successfully pass the interview board but who are not offered a post.

2.     About the Analysis Directorate

We are passionate about improving justice outcomes through innovative research, data and analysis. In the Analysis Directorate, we provide high quality data and analysis helping to ensure strategic, policy, finance, corporate and operational decisions are based on robust evidence.

We create a culture in which people are empowered with the data and information to make excellent decisions; using cutting edge tools, techniques and collaboration; putting evidence at the heart of the justice system.

We are a multi-disciplinary team of around 300 staff that sits at the heart of the Ministry of Justice providing analytical support across a diverse and exciting agenda. We work in a dynamic and fast-paced context and our skills are in heavy demand across the Ministry of Justice. Our collaborations beyond government are seen as ground-breaking. The Analysis community is made up of analysts and specialists including: Social Researchers, Economists, Operational Researchers, Statisticians, Data Engineers, Data Scientists and other data specialists (such as data strategists, data dissemination, generalists and assurance experts).

Why work in the Analysis Directorate?

In the Analysis Directorate, we want all our people to feel valued for who they are and for the work they do. We provide a warm, inclusive place to work and offer a wide range of flexibilities and benefits as part of our people offer to reward our staff.

What we offer

Flexible working arrangements and a focus on equality of opportunity – including welcoming part-time and/or job-share arrangements, compressed hours, working from home or your nearest Justice Collaboration Centres or Justice Satellite Office.

Career development – regular development and promotion opportunities across a wide range of roles, career development support, with a generous individual learning and development budget.

Range of new areas of work and new tools and techniques – we pride ourselves on our excellent deployment of well-established analytical methods, but also our progress to date. Progress such as our ambitious and innovative transformation programme to leverage departmental data and drive evidence-based decision-making using cutting-edge tools and techniques (for example: experimentation, personalisation, artificial intelligence).

Analysis is at the centre of the Department’s decision making – our transformation programme is focused on maximising our impact on departmental outcomes. The Ministry of Justice’s Senior Team and our Ministerial Team want all decisions to be evidence driven – your analysis will be key in influencing decisions and real-world impact.

Vibrant community – part of a multidisciplinary team that has a supportive culture and is looking to further develop the community with the help of everyone.

See the frontline and what your work is influencing – regular opportunities to visit our front-line service providers, including courts, prisons, and probation to better understand the areas your analysis is affecting.

3.     What you’ll do

Background

This role is based in the Fee and Fine Forecasting Team, within the Civil, Family, OPG & Income Modelling team, in the wider Justice System Modelling Team (Analysis Directorate).

The team forecast Civil and Family court demand and court fee income along with Criminal fine income; this accounts for over £1.4 billion of MoJ income each year. The income forecasts are used to set the departmental budget, for Spending Reviews and allocations. The court demand forecasts are used by HMCTS analytical and operational teams to plan and resource the courts effectively.

Job Description

The post is a great development opportunity for anyone interested in building their skills in forecasting techniques, especially in statistical time series modelling such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA. There is also lots of scope to develop R and SQL skills.

The post holder will have support, working with a G7 and SEO in the team, to get up to speed quickly with the modelling and monitoring processes. This will include updating the forecasts twice a year and reviewing the modelling approach for improvements.

The team provide regular updates to senior stakeholders in MoJ/HMCTS Finance and HMCTS Operations to explain how forecasts are performing and have changed, so there’s plenty of opportunity to develop your skills in communicating complex analysis clearly and with impact. This requires in-depth understanding of the drivers of court demand, including uncertainty and risks to the forecasts, so the role involves working collaboratively with teams across Data, Analysis and HMCTS Operations to build a comprehensive knowledge of the operational areas and data limitations.

There is plenty of scope for innovation within this role, whether to improve on the automation of data and monitoring processes or investigating ways to improve the modelling and mitigate the risks to the forecasts.

Main Activities/Responsibilities

The job holder will be required to undertake the following duties and responsibilities:

Update Civil and Family demand and income forecasts twice a year and present these to the senior governance group for sign-off.

Monitor the forecast performance, producing and disseminating monthly analysis to update stakeholders.

Review forecasting techniques and implement improvements to the modelling.

Gather and disseminate intelligence about drivers of court demand, including operational and policy changes, that may impact the precision of the forecasting.

4.      Who you are

The following experience and skills will be required:

Strong technical and analytical ability:

Experience of manipulating large complex datasets;

Applying complex analytical techniques to generate insights;

Proficiency in R and Excel.

Application of analytical methods:

Ability to bring together a wide range of insight and data, drawing evidence-based conclusions that drive model development and analysis.

Communicating and Influencing:

Have good written and oral communication and interpersonal skills.

Have the ability to produce clear and impactful visualisations to communicate analytical insights.

Be able to explain data and analytical concepts to technical and non-technical stakeholders, including senior leaders.

Managing a quality service:

Have the ability to manage stakeholder needs and deliver an organised programme of analysis and modelling.

Working Together:

Have the skills to work collaboratively with both technical and non-technical colleagues.

Ability to look beyond the immediate work area to identify opportunities where analysis and stakeholder engagement could add value.

The following experience and skills are desirable:

Previous experience of quantitative modelling and/or forecasting techniques, in particular statistical time series techniques such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA.

Experience of SQL to manipulate and derive insights from large data sets.

5.     How to apply

You’ll need to submit an anonymised work history and Statement of Suitability as part of your application. You will not be considered if you do not provide both.

Your work history should meet the following criteria: well structured, succinct, and written in clear language.

Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider giving examples that cover all the requirements in the ‘Who you are’ section and use work you have completed to demonstrate how you meet each one.

5a. Application Process

There will be an initial sift of applicants through comparing submitted evidence against the ‘Who you are’ bullets. This usually takes two weeks, depending on the number of applications.

Those who make it through the initial sift will be invited to a Civil Service Success Profile interview. In the Civil Service we use Success Profiles to help us find the right person for the job. We will be using a mixture of methods to assess your abilities, strengths, experience, technical skills, and behaviours. We highly recommend learning about Success Profiles and using the Situation, Task, Action, Result and Reflection (STARR) framework when structuring your answers.

The highest scoring candidates that pass the interview will be offered the roles. The whole process can take up to a month.

5b. Interview Process

You will be assessed against the Civil service success profiles framework at interview stage:

Communicating and Influencing

Managing a Quality Service

Working Together

Please also refer to the CS Behaviours framework for more details at this grade.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/717275/CS_Behaviours_2018.pdf

For existing analysts from all professions, as well as the three civil service behaviours stated above, you will be assessed on two sets of professional competencies at interview.

For unbadged candidates within the Civil Service, as well as the three civil service behaviours stated above, you will be assessed on your analytical knowledge, experience and abilities, and the impact of your analytical work.

Professional Competencies

Professional Competency (1) Knowledge & Skills

GSS - Data Analysis.

GORS - Knowledge and application of OR Skills and Techniques.

GES - Analysis of Data.

Professional Competency (2) Influence & Impact

GSS - Presenting and disseminating data effectively.

GORS - Achieving impact with analysis.

GES - Effective communication.

For more information regarding Professional Competency (2) please refer to the analytical profession internet links below. Please note that some aspect of the professional competency may overlap with the MoJ competencies listed above. We therefore recommend that in providing evidence for the professional competency, candidates focus on the technical and methodology aspects of the competencies that are specific to the profession. We will use evidence presented for the MoJ competencies in assessing the wider skills candidates have.

Government Statistician Group (GSG): Further information, including a user guide, can be found within the link below:

GSG-competency-framework-2021-reviewed-february-2023

Government Operational Research Service (GORS): Further information can be found within the link below:

GORS Competencies

Government Economic Service (GES): Further information can be found within the link below:

GES Professional Standards 2022

6. Applicants invited for Interview

You will be required to give a 5-minute presentation at interview. Details of this will be sent to those candidates who are invited for interview.

7. Further Information

If you require any additional information about the role, please contact:

[email protected]